He Dolar blue» closed October with a 15% increase to $920while the inflation would be located by third consecutive month around double digits according to advances from private consulting firms.

This is the preamble with which the Minister of Economy, Sergio Massa, will have to face the last stretch of the campaign towards the second round, although maintaining the expectation that the downward trend in the case of the currency and a deceleration in prices will be consolidated.

He “blue” dollar started October at $800 But as the days went by and the election approached, his courage soared, The Government implemented controls, ordered raids and blocked the marketbut anyway it came to be traded at $1,200 48 hours from October 22.

From the day after the election and faced with a result that, in the opinion of analysts, weakened the possibility of dollarization, the value of the American currency in the marginal market began a sustained decline.

The overshotting that took it to the all-time nominal maximum retreated steadily and the day before caused a drop of $50 to complete October at $920.

However, the market analysts choose to be cautious about the immediate future given that they do not rule out another wave of coverage as November 19 approaches.

In the case of financial options, the MEP accumulated a variation of 21% in the month at the end of this Tuesday’s operations at $852.85. Its maximum value was $888.20 on October 20.

Meanwhile, Cash with Settlement (CCL) that companies use to transfer money abroad had a more moderate increase of 5.1% and reached $864.84. At the moment of greatest tension before the elections, up to $1,110 was paid to take money abroad. Therefore, the accumulated decrease since October 23 is $249, equivalent to 22%.

For its part, The Central Bank bought about US$ 130 million dollars this Tuesday and consequently closed October with a loss of US$235 million. This recovery has as a counterpart a greater accumulation of payments for unauthorized imports. On the other hand, this balance makes it impossible to meet the accumulation goal agreed with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Likewise, gross international reserves will close below US$ 22,000 million and tomorrow very close to US$ 21,000 million after the capital and interest payments that must be made to the multilateral organization. In this case the drop is US$4.6 billion. The net reserves would have been in the order of US$ 8,000 million.

Those that also suffered during October due to both local and international issues were sovereign debt bonds, which observed drops of up to 15.2% in the AL30D, the reference bond for MEP dollar operations. He Country Risk remained around 2,550 points without expressing major changes.

In turn, the Merval index of the Stock Exchange closed October with a rise of 3.4% measured in pesos and a fall of 2.1% in dollars.

Inflation in double digits

According to calculations by private consulting firms, inflation for the ending month would have been in double digits for the third consecutive month.

A study by Orlando Ferreres released today showed a price variation of 10.6%, which brings the year-on-year increase to 150%. Food registered an increase of 11.2%.

Meanwhile, for the Freedom and Progress Foundation directed by Aldo Abram, inflation for the ending month was 11.8%, raising the year-on-year rate to 150.6%.

Eugenio Marí, Chief Economist of L&P, maintained that “the current economic model is exhausted and annual inflation of three digits and growing is its visible consequence.”

“The most worrying thing is that we continue to rely on price controls, which are tools that are presented as a benefit for the most vulnerable sectors, but that hide inflation under the rug, generate shortages and hit job creation,” he added. .

In turn, for Eco Go with data collected in the third week of October, the projected food inflation is 9.7%.

The official inflation data will be released by Indec next Monday, November 13 six days before the elections.

November will begin with a similar trend with increases already scheduled in several areas. The most disturbing is that of rents.

After the discussion in the National Congress, the new law is now in force but only for new contracts. Contracts signed between July 1, 2022 and October 17, 2023 will continue to fall under the scope of the previous law. In this case, the update is maintained by the ICL, which shows an increase of around 120%.

Another worrying increase is that of prepaid medicine, which will be around 11% for those who cannot access the frozen fees (it reaches the family group with income less than $2 million gross).

Fuente