As expected, the first national poll carried out on the runoff gives a comfortable lead to Sergio Massa. The candidate of Unión por la Patria (UxP) gathers 44 percent of the votes, against 34 percent of Javier Milei of La Libertad Avanza (LLA). It happens that if those who say they are not going to vote (7 percent) and those who are going to vote blankly (6 percent) are discounted in valid votes, Massa would far exceed the 50 percent required to win. The numbers make sense because the effect, after an electoral contest, is always that they appear the champion’s friends. That is, the one who came out first has new voters. Added to this, without a doubt, was the instability that Milei showed on the night of Sunday, Monday and Tuesday, while Massa acted with serenity and without ups and downs. Leandro Santoro’s decision to withdraw from the Buenos Aires runoff contributes to the atmosphere of tranquility and adds to the idea of ​​Massa’s campaign: we are seriousness and serenity, while on the other side there is chaos.

The data comes from a survey carried out by Projectionthe consulting firm headed by Santiago Giorgetta. Projection Last Saturday, on the eve of the elections, he sent a work in which he gave Massa winning the next day. The distance was ultimately greater than that indicated by Projection, but the consulting firm clearly and correctly marked the trend. In the survey completed this Wednesday, 1,459 people were interviewed through the telephone system, but with operators talking to the respondents, not the automatic method.

Giorgetta’s work advances some key issues of the election: to whom the votes of the Bullrich-Petri formula go, those of Juan Schiaretti and Miriam Bregman.

• 15 percent of the Together for Change (JxC) formula go with Massa-Rossi; a little more, 24 percent go with Milei, but more than half say that they do not know (22 percent), that they will vote blank (19 percent) and that they will not go to vote (22 percent). Anyone realizes that, at least from the data, JxC should opt for neutrality: 62 percent of its voters say that they do not know, that they will vote blank or that they will be absent on November 19. According to previous studies, to win, Milei would need 80 percent of Bullrich’s votes, something that is far, far from happening.
• A very auspicious fact for Massa is that almost half of Schiaretti’s voters (42 percent) will accompany him in the runoff. Very few go with Milei (10 percent) and the other half does not know and, above all, says that she will not go to vote.
• As is also logical, 60 percent of those who supported Miriam Bregman affirm that they will vote for Massa.

Caution due to the «friends of the champion» phenomenon

As this newspaper explained in its Monday edition, the phenomenon of the champion’s friends He also found Milei after the PASO: from the 30 percent he obtained in August he jumped to 40 percent in 5 days. He bordered on the prediction of victory in the first round, because Massa remained at 29 points. The votes that Milei won were lost by Bullrich. Afterwards the foam began to subside and in the end the close look at Milei’s crazy proposals and what her followers said – with even worse ideas – was decisive.

According to Projection, the factor triumph operates again now, because Massa would be gaining 7 points and expanding his lead to 10. What is clear is that we should not stop at these measurements, because the path ahead is very long and includes an intense electoral campaign and a debate on November 12.

However, the numbers are read by governors, businessmen, judges and each one positions themselves regarding the possibility of a new government. This will take away Milei’s support – it is already happening – and, from what he sees, adds more desperation to his already unstable personality. She goes back on everything she said a few days before, she flirts with those she insulted and puts on a suit that is even very different from the one that helped her get 30 percent of the votes.

Anyway, It is not advisable to climb the pink mountain of the first days after an election. Making quick decisions in these circumstances increases the margins of error.